[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 09 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 Feb   138    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.9 08/2354UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  X3.3    1314UT  probable   all    European
  M1.2    1800UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 02 2024 1515UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      144
Feb      108
Mar      108


2. FORECAST (10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 Feb   140    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced
11 Feb   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced    
12 Feb   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 
8 February and is current for 8-10 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 09-Feb were near predicted monthly values to 
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread-F was observed 
at Hobart during local night hours and sporadic-E was observed 
at Brisbane during local dawn hours. Polar cap absorption began 
at high latitudes from around 09/1520 UT and is ongoing. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 
over 10-12 Feb. Degraded conditions are expected to continue 
at high to mid latitudes due to the polar cap absorption event 
on 10-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are likely.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au