[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 13 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (13 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
13 Feb   144    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 12 02 2024 0755UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      144
Feb      108
Mar      108


2. FORECAST (14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
14 Feb   110    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb   110    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
16 Feb   110    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 18 was issued 
on 13 February and is current for 14-15 Feb. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 19 was issued on 13 February and is current for 13-15 
Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Feb were 
near predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region. 
In the Antarctic region observed riometer absorption reached 
2db on 13-Feb at Mawson and Davis and is now declining. Forecast 
geomagnetic storm activity on 13-Feb has failed to eventuate. 
MUFs are now expected to be mostly near predicted values to 15% 
enhanced for 14-15 Feb as anticipated overnight geomagnetic activity 
has failed to eventuate. Brisbane and Norfolk Island MUFs were 
15% depressed after local dawn this morning. There is a chance 
for degraded HF conditions on 15-Feb if the anticipated CME arrives 
later than expected. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au