[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 15 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Sep    97    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    2229UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      115
Sep      96
Oct      93


2. FORECAST (16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Sep   100    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep    90    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%    
18 Sep    90    Fair-normal      Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 91 was issued on 
14 September and is current for 14-16 Sep. ASWFC Preliminary 
HF Communications Warning 92 was issued on 15 September and is 
current for 17-18 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT 
day 15-Sep were generally near predicted monthly values. Spread 
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart and Canberra. 
A minor fadeout was observed at Niue in association with the 
M1 flare at 15/2229UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values on 16-Sep, with depressions of up to 15% expected 
on 17-18 Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity, with the 
mild depressions expected to be more prevalent in the southern 
Australian region. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are expected.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au