[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 16 September 23 issued 2337 UT on 16 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Sep   100    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7 15/2229UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.9    0050UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.5    0533UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.4    0538UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      115
Sep      96
Oct      93


2. FORECAST (17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Sep   100    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep   100    Normal-poor      Near predicted monthly values    
19 Sep    75    Fair-poor        Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 92 was issued 
on 15 September and is current for 17-18 Sep. Maximum usable 
frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Sep were near predicted monthly 
values. Minor fadeouts were observed in association with the 
M2 and M3 flares on 16-Sep. MUFs are now expected to be near 
predicted monthly values on 17-Sep, as anticipated geomagnetic 
activity from mid 16-Sep has not eventuated. However, degraded 
HF conditions are expected on 19-20 Sep due to expected geomagnetic 
storm activity from a recent CME associated with an solar filament 
eruption. Shortwave fadeouts are now considered less likely for 
today.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au