[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 14 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Sep    95    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0745UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.9    1931UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.5    2126UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      115
Sep      96
Oct      93


2. FORECAST (15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Sep   100    Normal           Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep   110    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values    
17 Sep    90    Fair             Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 91 was issued on 
14 September and is current for 14-16 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Sep were depressed by up to 15% in the southern 
Australian region and near predicted monthly values in the northern 
Australian region. Significant spread F was observed at Brisbane, 
Canberra, Perth and Hobart. MUFs are generally expected to be 
near predicted monthly values on 15-16 Sep, with mild depressions 
possible late on 16-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. 
Depressions of up to 15% are expected on 17-Sep due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity. Depressions are expected to be more prevalent 
in the southern Australian region. Isolated shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au