[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 14 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 14 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Feb   145    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0203UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.7    1212UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
      Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      76


2. FORECAST (15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Feb   130    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
16 Feb   110    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
17 Feb   130    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 
13 February and is current for 13-15 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Southern Australian region on 14-Feb were near 
predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. MUFs in the Northern 
Australian region on 14-Feb were up to 20% enhanced, with periods 
of up to 65% enhancements during local night. Due to a recent 
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 10-Feb, mild depressions 
are possible in the Australian region during local night hours 
on 15-Feb and during the UT-day 16-Feb, with higher latitudes 
more affected. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced on 17-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au