[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 15 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Feb   152    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0447UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.0    0523UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    0705UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    2114UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-55% during local night and after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45-50% during local night and after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-70% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      76


2. FORECAST (16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Feb   125    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
17 Feb   115    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
18 Feb   105    Fair             Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 
15 February and is current for 15-17 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Southern Australian region on 15-Feb were enhanced 
by 30%. MUFs in the Northern Australian region on 15-Feb were 
up to 15% enhanced, with periods of up to 70% enhancements during 
local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced over 16-18 Feb. Degradations are possible over 
17-18 Feb due to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au