[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 13 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (13 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
13 Feb   121    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0519UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    1556UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 65% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      76


2. FORECAST (14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
14 Feb   100    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
15 Feb   120    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
16 Feb   120    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 
13 February and is current for 13-15 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values 
to 35% enhanced on UT day 13-Feb. Depressions of up to 15% were 
observed in the Eastern Australian region local during daylight 
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced for the first half of 14-Feb. Mild depressions 
are possible from late 14-Feb to 15-Feb due to a glancing impact 
from a CME first observed on 10-Feb. MUFs are expected to be 
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 16-Feb. Shortwave 
fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au