[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 03 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 03 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (03 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
03 Oct    94    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    0233UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M4.2    1011UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    1053UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1111UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.7    1530UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.3    2029UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.8    2122UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.3    2202UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      74
Oct      69
Nov      69


2. FORECAST (04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
04 Oct    80    Normal-fair      About 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
05 Oct    70    Fair             Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%    
06 Oct    40    Fair             Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 
3 October and is current for 3-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 03-Oct were generally near predicted monthly 
values to 25% enhanced, with very strong enhancements observed 
at Cocos Island. Spread F was observed during local night hours 
at Perth. A shortwave fadeout impacting lower HF frequencies 
was observed 03/0227-0310UT. Equatorial ionospheric scintillation 
was briefly observed at Darwin 03/1700-1715UT. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 04-Oct, 
then becoming degraded during 05-06 Oct, in association with 
an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity during this interval. 
The degree of middle latitude ionospheric depression response 
to any expected increase in geomagnetic activity is difficult 
to estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric conditions. 
Further fadeouts are likely on daylight HF circuits.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au