[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 04 October 22 issued 2333 UT on 04 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 Oct    92    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    1315UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      74
Oct      69
Nov      69


2. FORECAST (05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 Oct    80    Normal-fair      10 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
06 Oct    80    Fair             10 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
07 Oct    60    Fair             Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Oct were 
generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. The 
expected increase in geomagnetic activity for 04-Oct and subsequent 
ionospheric response at middle latitudes for 05-Oct has failed 
to eventuate. MUFs are now expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced on 05-Oct. Degraded HF conditions are 
possible 06-07-Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from 
recent solar filament eruptions. Isolated fadeouts are likely 
on daylight HF circuits.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au