[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 02 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (02 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
02 Oct    93    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M8.8    0221UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    1405UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    1545UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  X1.1    2025UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      74
Oct      69
Nov      69


2. FORECAST (03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
03 Oct    80    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct    75    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to    
05 Oct    75    Fair             Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Oct were 
mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced during local 
night hours. Sporadic-E was observed briefly at northern sites 
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near 15% enhanced 
on 03-Oct, becoming near predicted monthly values by local night. 
Degraded local night conditions with possible mild depressions 
after local dawn may be experienced for southern Australian regions 
over 03-05 Oct, in association with an anticipated increase in 
geomagnetic activity. The degree of ionospheric depression is 
difficult to estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric 
conditions.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au