[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 01 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (01 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
01 Oct    89    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.9    2010UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      74
Oct      69
Nov      69


2. FORECAST (02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
02 Oct    80    Fair             Enhanced by 15-20% to near predicted 
                                 monthly values
03 Oct    75    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values    
04 Oct    75    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 75 was issued 
on 30 September and is current for 1-2 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 76 was issued on 30 September and is current for 30 Sep 
to 2 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Oct 
were mostly enhanced by 15-35%, with enhancements up to 95% observed 
at Darwin. Sporadic-E was observed at northern sites during local 
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near 15% enhanced on 02-Oct, 
becoming near predicted monthly values by local night. Degraded 
local night conditions with possible mild depressions after local 
dawn may be experienced for southern Australian regions over 
03-04 Oct, in association with an anticipated increase in geomagnetic 
activity. The degree of ionospheric depression is difficult to 
estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric conditions.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au