[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 30 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 30 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (30 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
30 Sep    97    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0402UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.0    1622UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.4    1734UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      53
Sep      68
Oct      69


2. FORECAST (01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
01 Oct    85    Fair             Enhanced 10 to 15%/ near predicted 
                                 monthly values
02 Oct    70    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values    
03 Oct    70    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 75 was issued 
on 30 September and is current for 1-2 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 76 was issued on 30 September and is current for 30 Sep 
to 2 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Sep 
were mostly enhanced by 15-25% during local day and night hours 
in the Australian region. Regional MUFs are expected to be near 
15% enhanced on 01-Oct, becoming near predicted monthly values 
by local night. Degraded local night conditions with possible 
mild depressions after local dawn may be experienced for southern 
Australian regions over 02-03 Oct in association with an anticipated 
increase in geomagnetic activity. The degree of ionospheric depression 
is difficult to estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric 
conditions.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au