[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 13 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (13 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
13 Feb    79    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    1524UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51


2. FORECAST (14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
14 Feb    70    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
15 Feb    70    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
16 Feb    30    Poor             Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued 
on 13 February and is current for 16-17 Feb. Observed MUF's for 
the UT day 13 Feb were above the monthly predicted values. The 
two day outlook (14-15 Feb) is for MUFs to remain near the monthly 
predicted levels. This is anticipated due to enhancements in 
charge densities in F-region of the ionosphere during the periods 
preceding the onset of geomagnetic storms. MUF are expected to 
degrade below the monthly predicted levels during the recovery 
phase (after UT day 16 Feb) of the geomagnetic storms. Shortwave 
fades are possible due the flare potential from Region 2497.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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