[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Feb    83    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1926UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51


2. FORECAST (15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Feb    75    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
16 Feb    30    Poor             Near predicted monthly values    
17 Feb    40    Fair-normal      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued 
on 13 February and is current for 16-17 Feb. IPS SWF HF Communications 
Warning 9 was issued on 13 February and is current for 14-15 
Feb. Observed MUF's for the UT day 14 Feb were above the monthly 
predicted values. The outlook for 15 Feb is for MUFs to remain 
near the monthly predicted levels. This is anticipated due to 
enhancements in charge densities in F-region of the ionosphere 
during the periods preceding the onset of geomagnetic storms. 
MUF are expected to degrade below the monthly predicted levels 
during the recovery phase (after UT day 16 Feb) of the geomagnetic 
storms. Shortwave fades are possible due the flare potential 
from Region 2497.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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