[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 12 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (12 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
12 Feb    59    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1048UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51


2. FORECAST (13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
13 Feb    60    Normal           Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb    60    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
15 Feb    70    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12 
February and is current for 12-13 Feb. Observed MUF's for the 
UT day 12 Feb were slightly above the monthly predicted values. 
The outlook (13 Feb) is for MUFs to remain near the monthly predicted 
levels. The solar ionising radiations (10.7 cm solar flux) has 
been steady near 120 s.f.u for the last 7 days. This is expected 
to maintain normal HF conditions over the next two days. The 
MUFs are expected to enhances on the UT day 15 Feb coinciding 
with the onset of active geomagnetic conditions associated with 
the anticipated arrival of the 11 Feb CME.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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