[Ips-dhfpr] SWS Daily HF Prop Report - 02 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (02 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
02 Aug    18    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36


2. FORECAST (03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
03 Aug    30    Fair             Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    10    Fair             Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
05 Aug    15    Normal-fair      Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: Depressed MUF's were observed over all Australasia regions 
during the last 24 hours (2 August) with isolated enhancements 
over some Southern AUS/NZ regions and over the South Pacific 
Oceans. Slightly improved MUFs though still below the monthly 
predicted levels are expected today (3 August) over the Australasia 
region due to the forecasted active geomagnetic conditions. During 
winter months, the Southern hemisphere regions are expected to 
experience better HF conditions on Day 1 of storms. However, 
HF conditions are expected to become depressed again on 4 and 
5 August (Day 2 and Day 3 after storms), as the storm-associated 
negative effects began to dominate. Near monthly predicted HF 
condition are expected to occur from 6 August.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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