[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 01 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2014

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (01 MARCH) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
01 Mar   147    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1333UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      75
Apr      74


2. FORECAST (02 MARCH - 04 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
02 Mar   130    Normal           Near to 25% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
03 Mar   130    Normal           Near to 25% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
04 Mar   130    Normal           Near to 25% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 28 
February and is current for 1-3 Mar. The numerous active regions 
on the disc collectively represent a high probability of M class 
flares and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Observed MUF's 
for most of Australasia were above monthly median values during 
the day and night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced 
by numerous active regions on the disc. Expect this trend to 
continue for the next three days.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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