[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 28 February 14 issued 2346 UT on 28 Feb 2014

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (28 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
28 Feb   132    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0048UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75


2. FORECAST (01 MARCH - 03 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
01 Mar   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
02 Mar   120    Normal           Near to 25% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
03 Mar   120    Normal           Near to 25% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 28 
February and is current for 1-3 Mar. IPS SWF HF Communications 
Warning 16 will be issued for 01-03 March. The numerous active 
regions on the disc collectively represent a high probability 
of M class flares and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Observed 
MUF's for most of Australasia were above monthly median values 
during the day and night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray 
enhanced by numerous active regions on the disc. There may be 
a slight lowering in MUFs values today, 01 March, due to yesterday's 
geomagnetic activity, however MUFs are expected to remain near 
predicted or slightly higher.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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