[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 02 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2014

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (02 MARCH) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
02 Mar   141    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
  Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      75
Apr      74


2. FORECAST (03 MARCH - 05 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
03 Mar   130    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
04 Mar   130    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
05 Mar   130    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 28 
February and is current for 1-3 Mar. Numerous active regions 
on the disc are emitting C-class flares, and strong background 
ionising flux. AR1990/91 still hold food M flare potential for 
moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). AR1982 has rotated off the 
disc so overall M flare potential has dropped slightly. Observed 
MUF's for most of Australasia were above monthly median values 
during the day and night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray 
enhanced by numerous active regions on the disc and transport 
of ionisation from dayside to nightside by thermospheric winds. 
Expect this trend to continue for the next three days.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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