[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 26 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 27 10:30:32 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (26 FEBRUARY)
Date T index Conditions
26 Feb 132 Normal
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1501UT possible lower South American/
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
Monthly T index:
Month T index
2. FORECAST (27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
27 Feb 120 Normal Near to 15% above predicted
28 Feb 120 Normal Near to 15% above predicted
01 Mar 120 Normal Near to 15% above predicted
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 25
February and is current for 26-28 Feb. Observed MUF's for most
of Australasia were near or slightly above monthly median values
during the day but enhanced 25-35% at night. This is possibly
due to wind transport at night of enhanced ionisation from the
daylight hemisphere due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced
by numerous active regions on the disc. The numerous active regions
on the disc collectively represent a high probability of M class
flares and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Previously active
(X4.9 flare 25 Feb) AR1990 has become conspicuously quiet and
reduced in size so X class flares and deep SWFs are not as likely.
Geomagnetic activity expected to be Quiet-Unsettled for 27-28th
Feb so ionosphere not expected to be too variable. Elevated solar
wind speed from coronal hole CH605 may take effect as early as
1 Mar and create moderately variable MUFs.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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