[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 26 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2014

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (26 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
26 Feb   132    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1501UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75


2. FORECAST (27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
27 Feb   120    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
28 Feb   120    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
01 Mar   120    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 25 
February and is current for 26-28 Feb. Observed MUF's for most 
of Australasia were near or slightly above monthly median values 
during the day but enhanced 25-35% at night. This is possibly 
due to wind transport at night of enhanced ionisation from the 
daylight hemisphere due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced 
by numerous active regions on the disc. The numerous active regions 
on the disc collectively represent a high probability of M class 
flares and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Previously active 
(X4.9 flare 25 Feb) AR1990 has become conspicuously quiet and 
reduced in size so X class flares and deep SWFs are not as likely. 
Geomagnetic activity expected to be Quiet-Unsettled for 27-28th 
Feb so ionosphere not expected to be too variable. Elevated solar 
wind speed from coronal hole CH605 may take effect as early as 
1 Mar and create moderately variable MUFs.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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