[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 25 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2014

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (25 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
25 Feb   116    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X4/--    0049UT  probable   all    West Pacific

MUFs:
  Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75


2. FORECAST (26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
26 Feb   110    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
27 Feb   110    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
28 Feb   110    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: A strong short wave fadeout was observed across the 
region early in the UT day (~0050UT) for a couple of hours due 
to an X4.9 flare from sunspot group AR1990 newly rotated onto 
the disc (see Solar section). The SWF epicentre was NE of Australia 
and models indicated ALF for the east coast over 1500km path 
to be elevated from 5 to 20MHz. Many ionosondes showed 100% absorption 
across the HF band. AR1990 appears to hold further potential 
for X or at least M class flares and further SWFs should be expected. 
Observed MUF's for most of Australasia were near monthly median 
values during the day but enhanced 15-30% at night. This is possibly 
due to wind transport at night of enhanced ionisation from the 
daylight hemisphere due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced 
by numerous active regions on the disc. Geomagnetic activity 
expected to be Quiet for 26-28th Feb so ionosphere not expected 
to be too variable. 

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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