[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 27 February 14 issued 2331 UT on 27 Feb 2014

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (27 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
27 Feb   143    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75


2. FORECAST (28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
28 Feb   100    Normal           Near to 5% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
01 Mar   120    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
02 Mar   120    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 25 
February and is current for 26-28 Feb. Observed MUF's for most 
of Australasia were above monthly median values during the day 
and night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by numerous 
active regions on the disc. The numerous active regions on the 
disc collectively represent a high probability of M class flares 
and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Geomagnetic activity 
has been elevated late in the UT day to Active/Minor Storm by 
the late arrival of the coronal mass ejection associated with 
the X4.9 flare 01UT 25th Feb from AR1990. Despite the CME being 
directed eastward, the front was very wide and the effect is 
stronger than expected. Hence early in the UT day on 28th Feb 
MUFs may be suppressed but only toward median levels as they 
are already enhanced. Elevated solar wind speed from narrow coronal 
hole CH605 may take effect as early as 1 Mar and continue Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions creating moderately variable MUFs until 
2 Mar.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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