[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 27 February 14 issued 2331 UT on 27 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 28 10:31:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (27 FEBRUARY)
Date T index Conditions
27 Feb 143 Normal
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
Monthly T index:
Month T index
2. FORECAST (28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
28 Feb 100 Normal Near to 5% above predicted monthly
01 Mar 120 Normal Near to 15% above predicted
02 Mar 120 Normal Near to 15% above predicted
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 25
February and is current for 26-28 Feb. Observed MUF's for most
of Australasia were above monthly median values during the day
and night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by numerous
active regions on the disc. The numerous active regions on the
disc collectively represent a high probability of M class flares
and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Geomagnetic activity
has been elevated late in the UT day to Active/Minor Storm by
the late arrival of the coronal mass ejection associated with
the X4.9 flare 01UT 25th Feb from AR1990. Despite the CME being
directed eastward, the front was very wide and the effect is
stronger than expected. Hence early in the UT day on 28th Feb
MUFs may be suppressed but only toward median levels as they
are already enhanced. Elevated solar wind speed from narrow coronal
hole CH605 may take effect as early as 1 Mar and continue Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions creating moderately variable MUFs until
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
Information about training can be obtained from
General information is available from
More information about the ips-dhfpr