[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 16 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (15 MAY)
Date T index Conditions
15 May 84 Normal
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.3 0148UT probable all West Pacific
MUFs:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
PCA Event : No event.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
2. FORECAST (16 MAY - 18 MAY)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
16 May 85 Normal Near to 15% above predicted
monthly values
17 May 90 Normal-fair Near to 15% above predicted
monthly values
18 May 70 Normal Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: A short-wave fadeout, peaking at 0148UT was observed
on 15-May, centred over the West Pacific and affecting all of
mainland Australia. Otherwise, mostly normal ionospheric support
observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours. A weak
PCA event is in progress affecting HF communications at high
latitudes. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values
16-May, with a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ
regions overnight 17 May. Short wave fadeouts possible next two
days with a reasonable chance of isolated M and X flares from
solar active regions.
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
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