[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 May 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 16 09:30:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 May    84    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.3    0148UT  probable   all    West Pacific

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69


2. FORECAST (16 MAY - 18 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 May    85    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
17 May    90    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
18 May    70    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: A short-wave fadeout, peaking at 0148UT was observed 
on 15-May, centred over the West Pacific and affecting all of 
mainland Australia. Otherwise, mostly normal ionospheric support 
observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours. A weak 
PCA event is in progress affecting HF communications at high 
latitudes. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values 
16-May, with a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions overnight 17 May. Short wave fadeouts possible next two 
days with a reasonable chance of isolated M and X flares from 
solar active regions.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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