[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 17 09:30:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 May    91    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    2154UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69


2. FORECAST (17 MAY - 19 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 May    95    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
18 May    80    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
19 May    80    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 16 
May and is current for 16-17 May. Mostly normal ionospheric support 
observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours. A PCA 
event is in progress affecting HF communications at high latitudes. 
MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values during 
the day 17-May, with a chance of depressed periods for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions overnight 17-May and into 18-May. Short wave fadeouts 
possible with a chance of isolated M and X flares from solar 
active regions.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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