[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 15 09:30:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 May    88    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X3.2    0111UT  probable   all    West Pacific

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69


2. FORECAST (15 MAY - 17 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 May    90    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
16 May    70    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
17 May    70    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 13 
May and is current for 14-15 May. A short-wave fadeout, peaking 
at 0111UT was observed on 14-May, centred over the West Pacific 
and affecting all of mainland Australia. Otherwise, mostly normal 
ionospheric support observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 
24 hours. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values 15-May, 
with a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions 
16-17 May. Short wave fadeouts possible next two days with a 
reasonable chance of isolated M and X flares from solar active 
regions.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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