[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
+++ NOTE: STRONG DISTURBANCE EXPECTED +++
1. SUMMARY (16 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Jan    68    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X2.7 15/2302UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M2.4    2203UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32
2. FORECAST (17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY)   
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Jan    20    Fair-poor        near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 30 to 40% 
18 Jan   -10    Poor             30 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
19 Jan   -10    Poor-fair        30 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 15 January 
and is current for interval 15-17 January (SWFs) . HF conditions 
expected to be disrupted by shortwave fadeouts today due to active 
solar region. Two Earth directed coronal mass ejections are now 
presumed enroute to the Earth. The first coronal mass ejection 
was expected to arrive late 16 Jan, now expected first half 17 
Jan. Depression T index forecast slipped out one day as a result. 
Frequent fadeouts expected on daylight HF circuits. Recommended 
course of action for today is to use as high a frequecny as possible 
(due to elevated ALF conditions) and then be prepared to use 
a lower frequency once mass ejection has impacted, probably after 
local Aus/NZ dawn on Tuesday. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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