[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 January 05
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 17 09:51:24 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
+++ NOTE: STRONG DISTURBANCE EXPECTED +++
1. SUMMARY (16 JANUARY)
Date T index Conditions
16 Jan 68 Fair-normal
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.7 15/2302UT probable all West Pacific
M2.4 2203UT possible lower West Pacific
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and is in progress
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
2. FORECAST (17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
17 Jan 20 Fair-poor near predicted monthly values/depressed
30 to 40%
18 Jan -10 Poor 30 to 40% below predicted monthly
19 Jan -10 Poor-fair 30 to 40% below predicted monthly
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 15 January
and is current for interval 15-17 January (SWFs) . HF conditions
expected to be disrupted by shortwave fadeouts today due to active
solar region. Two Earth directed coronal mass ejections are now
presumed enroute to the Earth. The first coronal mass ejection
was expected to arrive late 16 Jan, now expected first half 17
Jan. Depression T index forecast slipped out one day as a result.
Frequent fadeouts expected on daylight HF circuits. Recommended
course of action for today is to use as high a frequecny as possible
(due to elevated ALF conditions) and then be prepared to use
a lower frequency once mass ejection has impacted, probably after
local Aus/NZ dawn on Tuesday.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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