[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 17 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (17 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
17 Jan    40    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X3/2F    0952UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32
2. FORECAST (18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
18 Jan    40    Normal-Fair      near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20% 
19 Jan   -10    Fair-poor        30 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
20 Jan    10    Poor-fair        depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be disrupted by shortwave 
fadeouts today due to active solar region. Two Earth directed 
coronal mass ejections have impacted the Earth, however ionospheric 
response has not been as bad as predicted. Todays T index revised 
to 40. However, another coronal mass ejection is expected to 
arrive late 18 early 19 Jan and depressed conditions are expected 
for 19 Jan and possibly 20 Jan. 
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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