[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 16 10:42:26 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (15 JANUARY)
Date T index Conditions
15 Jan 75 Fair
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.2 0043UT probable all West Pacific
M1.3 0416UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8.4 0431UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8.6 0642UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 0940UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1148UT possible lower European
M3.2 1424UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 2209UT possible lower West Pacific
X2.7 2302UT probable all West Pacific
MUFs:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
PCA Event : No event.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
2. FORECAST (16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
16 Jan 60 Fair-Poor 15-20% above predicted monthly
values
17 Jan -10 Poor near predicted monthly values/depressed
30 to 40%
18 Jan -10 Poor 30 to 40% below predicted monthly
values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 15 January
and is current for interval 15-17 January (SWFs) . HF conditions
expected to be disrupted by shortwave fadeouts today due to active
solar region. Two Earth directed coronal mass ejections are now
enroute to the Earth expected 16-18 Jan. MUF are expected to
become very depressed in coming days. HF communication may become
very difficult if this active solar region continues to flare
whilst lower than normal MUFs are being experienced due to the
expected storm ionosphere. Recommended course of action for today
is to use as high a frequency as possible (due to elevated ALF
conditions) and then be prepared to use a lower frequecny once
mass ejection has impacted.
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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