[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 January 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 16 10:42:26 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Jan    75    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.2    0043UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M1.3    0416UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M8.4    0431UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M8.6    0642UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.3    0940UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    1148UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.2    1424UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    2209UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  X2.7    2302UT  probable   all    West Pacific

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32
2. FORECAST (16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Jan    60    Fair-Poor        15-20% above predicted monthly 
                                 values 
17 Jan   -10    Poor             near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 30 to 40%     
18 Jan   -10    Poor             30 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 15 January 
and is current for interval 15-17 January (SWFs) . HF conditions 
expected to be disrupted by shortwave fadeouts today due to active 
solar region. Two Earth directed coronal mass ejections are now 
enroute to the Earth expected 16-18 Jan. MUF are expected to 
become very depressed in coming days. HF communication may become 
very difficult if this active solar region continues to flare 
whilst lower than normal MUFs are being experienced due to the 
expected storm ionosphere. Recommended course of action for today 
is to use as high a frequency as possible (due to elevated ALF 
conditions) and then be prepared to use a lower frequecny once 
mass ejection has impacted. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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