[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 13 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (13 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
13 Sep    63    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over most of the UT day. 
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 09 2004 2115UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38
2. FORECAST (14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
14 Sep    40    Fair-Poor        near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20% 
15 Sep    30    Fair             5 to 10% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
16 Sep    30    Normal           5 to 10% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 13 September 
and is current for interval 14-15 September. Overnight enhancements 
observed again in Equatorial/N Aus region. Generally good HF 
conditions observed at all latitudes until late in the UT day. 
A shock passage in the solar wind has resulted in disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions. Possible HF disturbances may result on days one and 
two, persisting into day three mainly at high latitudes. Elevated 
proton fluxes associated with the shock arrival have resulted 
in increased absorption in the polar cap region. 
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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