[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 September 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 15 09:55:05 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Sep    68    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.5/1F    0930UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 09 2004 2115UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38
2. FORECAST (15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Sep    55    Normal           about 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values 
16 Sep    50    Fair             about 10% above predicted monthly 
                                 values     
17 Sep    50    Normal           about 10% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 13 September 
and is current for interval 14-15 September. Overnight enhancements 
observed again in Equatorial/N Aus region. Generally good HF 
conditions observed at low to mid latitudes despite considerable 
geomagnetic disturbance following the solar wind shock arrival 
late on Sep 13. A proton-PCA event is in progress resulting in 
poor HF conditions in the Antarctic region. Expect continuing 
poor propagation conditions in Antarctic region, with the possibility 
of a further minor shock arrival on day two. Propagation at low 
to mid latitudes shows no sign of degradation at this stage. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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