[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Aug    68    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0508UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0600UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.6    1132UT  possible   lower  European
  M9.4    1241UT  probable   lower  European
  M1.2    1845UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39
2. FORECAST (16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Aug    65    Normal-Fair      Enhanced 10% to depressed 10-20%. 
17 Aug    40    Normal-Fair      depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
18 Aug    55    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 15 August 
and is current for interval 16-17 August. Mostly normal HF conditions 
are initially expected for 16 August, with mildly degraded HF 
conditions expected for late 16 early 17 August for southern 
Aus/NZ regions only, as the result of anticipated mildly elevated 
levels of geomagnetic activity. SWFs are expected to continue 
for the next few days. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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