[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Aug    68    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.0 13/2343UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.4    0414UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M7.4    0544UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.3    0756UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    0957UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.2    1008UT  possible   lower  European
  M5.6    1343UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    1818UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.3    2016UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.1    2029UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.2    2051UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39
2. FORECAST (15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Aug    60    Normal           about 10% above predicted monthly 
                                 values 
16 Aug    45    Normal-Fair      Enhanced 10% to depressed 10-20%.     
17 Aug    40    Normal-Fair      depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 13 August 
and is current for interval 14-16 August (SWFs) . Mostly normal 
HF conditions are expected for 15 August, with mildly degraded 
HF conditions expected for 16-17 August for southern regions 
as the result of anticipated mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic 
activity. SWFs are expected to continue for the next few days. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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