[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (15 May 26) issued 0131 UT on 15 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 15 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (08 MAY - 14 MAY)
Date     08    09    10    11    12    13    14
10cm    120   122   126   116   111   103   106
AFr      12     5     4     4     2     9  (  7)
Aaus      6     3     1     3     1     5  (  2)
T        75    69    59    52    53    45    52

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

08 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 May 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.7 at 1339UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 May 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (15 MAY - 21 MAY)
Solar: 
Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level this week, with
a chance of R1. Regions 4420 and 4423, which previously produced flares at
the R1 level, may return to the visible this week. 

Geomagnetic:  
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-16 May, with a chance of G2
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for the remainder of the week,
with a chance of G1 over 17-18 May. 

Frequencies:  
Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% depressed over 15-16 May. MUFs near predicted monthly values on
other days.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au