[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (10 October 25) issued 0049 UT on 10 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Oct 10 11:49:51 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 10 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (03 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER)
Date     03    04    05    06    07    08    09
10cm    170   158   148   133   131   120   122
AFr      20    16     6     5    14     9  (  9)
Aaus     17    14     5     3    10     8  (  3)
T       114   121    99   104   112   113   111

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

03 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 0523UT, and an M1.2 at 
              1436UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Generally near predicted monthly 
      values during local day, with MUFs
      at Hobart depressed 20% and MUFs at Perth
      enhanced by 30%.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      MUFs at Townsville 15-30% depressed 05/00-03UT.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

08 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

09 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.0 at 1231UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 09 Oct, a weak (9nT) impulse 
was observed at 0831UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment: Southern Australian regional MUFs were depressed 15-20%
on 03-Oct and 05-Oct with the depression on 05-Oct more widespread.
Spread F was frequently observed on Bureau ionograms at Hobart and 
Canberra during local night hours. A very weak shock signature was 
observed in the solar wind parameters at 09/0738UT and a weak
geomagnetic impulse was observed at 09/0831UT. The minor shock is 
believed to be from very slow CME activity on 03-Oct. No significant 
geomagnetic activity followed the weak shock arrival.

2. FORECAST (10 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1. Currently there is no significant solar region on the
visible solar disk.

Geomagnetic:  
G1 conditions generally expected from late 11-Oct to early 13-Oct
due to a coronal hole wind stream. There is a chance for isolated
G2 periods on 12-Oct. G0 conditions on other days of the week.

Frequencies:  
Southern Australian regional MUFs may be depressed by 15% after local 
dawn during the interval 12-13 Oct. MUFs near predicted monthly values 
on other days, with northern Australian region MUFs expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au