[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (01 March 24) issued 0101 UT on 01 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 01 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (23 FEBRUARY - 29 FEBRUARY)
Date     23    24    25    26    27    28    29
10cm    173   179   181   172   168   180   164
AFr       2     6    14    10     9     5  (  6)
Aaus      3     6     9     7     8     2  (  2)
T       134   136   126    89   102   109   109

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

23 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 1328UT, 
              an M1.5 at 1553UT, and an M2.6 at 1748UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

24 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.5 at 0634UT, an M2.2 at 1058UT, 
              an M3.6 at 1118UT, and an M1.0 at 1159UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 24 Feb, a weak (10nT) impulse 
was observed at 1712UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

25 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.0 at 1722UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Darwin.
      Depressed 15-30% at Townsville.
      Enhanced 15-30% at Learmonth during local day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day Hobart, Canberra and Brisbane.
      Enhanced 15-30% during local day at Perth.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

27 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

28 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.5 at 1855UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (01 MARCH - 07 MARCH)
Solar: 
Returning region AR3576, which previously produced R1-R3 flare activity
is due to return on 01-Mar. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 
levels this week.

Geomagnetic:  
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 02-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected for the remainder of the week, with a chance of G1 on 03-Mar
as CME effects abate.

Frequencies:  
MUFs may be briefly depressed after local dawn over 02-03 Mar due to expected
geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on other days. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au