[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (19 July 24) issued 0044 UT on 19 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 19 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (12 JULY - 18 JULY)
Date     12    13    14    15    16    17    18
10cm    210   238   234   233   242   224   209
AFr       7     6     9     8    12     7  (  7)
Aaus      3     1     2     3     6     3  (  2)
T       128   130   140   127   145   143   141

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

12 Jul 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Jul 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.4 at 0318UT, an M5.3 at 1242UT, 
              an M1.8 at 1530UT, an M1.0 at 1930UT, and an M5.0 
              at 2301UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Jul 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.7 at 0116UT, an X1.2 at 0234UT, 
              an M3.0 at 0413UT, an M1.0 at 1020UT, and an M1.0 at 2057UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0345UT, and an M2.7 at 
              0937UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

16 Jul 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.4 at 0301UT, an M3.6 at 0737UT, 
              an X2.0 at 1326UT, an M1.6 at 2125UT, and an M1.9 
              at 2206UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

17 Jul 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.0 at 0639UT, an M3.4 at 0748UT, an M1.2 at 0948UT, 
              an M1.2 at 1951UT, and an M2.0 at 1958UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

18 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.2 at 1014UT and an M2.0 at 1027UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (19 JULY - 25 JULY)
Solar: 
R1-R2, solar region AR3751 located in the southeast solar
quadrant is currently the largest and most complex region on
the visible solar disk.

Geomagnetic:  
Generally G0 conditions with isolated G1 periods possible
during the interval 20-21 Jul.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near to 15% above predicted monthly values. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts possible.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au