[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (29 December 23) issued 0120 UT on 29 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 29 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (22 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER)
Date     22    23    24    25    26    27    28
10cm    187   174   183   167   154   149   147
AFr       3     5     7     2     4     4  (  2)
Aaus      3     5     6     3     5     4  (  2)
T       118   120   126   131   133   133   140

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

22 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.3 at 0004UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

24 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.9 at 1118UT, an M2.6 at 1649UT, 
              and an M1.1 at 1951UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

27 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 28 Dec, a weak (8nT) impulse 
was observed at 2346UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (29 DECEMBER - 04 JANUARY)
Solar: 
R0 conditions expected throughout the week, with a chance of R1.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions expected on 29-Dec, with a slight 
chance of G1 due to possible late impacts from CMEs first 
observed on 24-Dec. G0 conditions are expected on 30-Dec. 
G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 31-Dec
to 2-Jan due to high speed wind stream effects from an 
equatorial coronal hole approaching a geoeffective position.
G0 conditions are expected over 3-4 Jan.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Although
depressions are possible, particularly at higher latitudes, 
if geomagnetic activity eventuates.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au