[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 December 23) issued 0109 UT on 22 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (15 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    144   149   155   161   179   195   194
AFr       8    10    32    16    10     7  (  4)
Aaus     13    10    25    25     9     7  (  2)
T        82    79   111    71    91   134   129

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Dec 
Solar:        R2, with an M6.3 at 0715UT, and an M6.9 at 0734UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 15 Dec, a weak (18nT) impulse 
was observed at 1146UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

16 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 2017UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
In the BOM magnetometer data for 17 Dec, a weak (28nT) impulse 
was observed at 0737UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 18 Dec, a weak (11nT) impulse 
was observed at 0216UT, a weak (19nT) impulse was observed at 
0402UT, a weak (23nT) impulse was observed at 0540UT and a weak 
(9nT) impulse was observed at 1540UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.2 at 0535UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (22 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over the next week,
with a chance of R2. AR3511 which previously produced an R2 level
flare may return on 25-Dec.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
throughout the week.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au