[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (04 November 11) issued 0157 UT on 04 Nov 2011

Fri Nov 4 12:57:17 EST 2011

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 04 NOVEMBER 2011, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (28 OCTOBER - 03 NOVEMBER)
Date     28    29    30    31    01    02    03
10cm    134   123   127   138   139   154   160
AFr       1     2     4     9    14     7 (  5)
Aaus      1     0     6    11    15     6 (  3)
T       110   112   107   107   122   101   106

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

28 Oct 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day. Enhanced by 70% during
      local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day. Enhanced by 35% during
      local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced
      by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 35% during
      local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

29 Oct 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced
      by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day. Enhanced by 25% during
      local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 30% during
      local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 20% during
      local night. Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Oct 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled. A weak (13nT) impulse was
	      observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 1002UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day. No data
      available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced
      by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced
      by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly
      values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

31 Oct 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.1 at 1510UT, and an M1.4 at
              1809UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods at 
              high latitudes. 
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40% 13-20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30% 10-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25% 11-21
      UT at Darwin and enhanced to 25% most of the time at
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

01 Nov 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active. Minor storm 09-12 UT. Major storm 
              09-12 UT at high latitudes. Weak sudden impulse 
              to 15 nT observed in Australian data at 0908 UT. 
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 01-10 UT. Enhanced to 40% at
      other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced during local
      day. Enhanced to 50% at night. Spread F 18-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day; enhanced to
      40% local night at Darwin. Enhanced 15-45% at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.  At Hobart,
      depressions to 20% 13-18 UT and spread F 11-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

02 Nov 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M4.3 at 2201UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active. Isolated minor to major storm 
              levels at high latitudes. 
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 20% 01-03
      and 19-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-40% above predicted monthly values. Spread F
      16-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 20%
      10-14, 19-21 UT at Darwin and enhancements to 40% 08-22 UT
      at Townsville. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced. Occasional
      depressions to 20% mostly 04-13 UT at Perth and Learmonth.
      Night spread F at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional depressions
      to 30%.

03 Nov 
Solar:        High, with an M2.5 at 1112UT, an X1.9 at 2027UT and
              and an M2.1 at 2336UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet. Quiet to unsettled at high latitudes with 
              some active periods. Fluctuation seen in magnetometer 
              data around 2027 UT. 
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values until 13 UT then enhanced
      to 35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly enhanced to 30%. No data 18-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin MUFs were near predicted monthly values to 05
      UT then enhanced to 35% apart from enhancements to
      60% 10-14 UT. Mostly 10 to 30% enhanced at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values until around 19 UT
      then enhanced to 30%. Enhanced at Perth to 30% most of
      the time.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      09-16 UT at Macquarie Is and Scott Base.

2. FORECAST (04 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate. Possibility of X events.

Geomagnetic: Quiet to unsettled conditions. Active levels possible
	     04 Nov.

Frequencies: Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. Chance
	     of sudden ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors
	     of HF circuits.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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