[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (30 July 04)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 30 10:47:34 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 30 JULY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (23 JULY - 29 JULY)
Date 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
10cm 165 147 145 128 118 101 100
AFr 21 29 64 26 119 11 ( 8)
Aaus 24 19 57 21 80 13 ( 6)
T 97 73 92 6 60 23 28
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies: Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
23 Jul
Solar: moderate, with an M2/SF at 1728UT, and an M1 at 2123UT
Geomagnetic: Active to minor storm
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 40-45%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-50% during local day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25-55%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
24 Jul
Solar: moderate, with an M1/1F at 0606UT, and an M2 at 1850UT
Geomagnetic: Unsettled to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 40-60%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
25 Jul
Solar: high, with an M7.1/2B at 0551UT, an M1/1F at 0639UT,
an M2 at 1349UT, and an M1/1F at 1514UT
Geomagnetic: Active to Major Storm
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 135% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
26 Jul
Solar: moderate, with an M1/SF at 0552UT, an M1/2N at 1730UT,
and an M1 at 0000UT.
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Major Storm
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
27 Jul
Solar: moderate, with an M1/1N at 0545UT, an M1/1F at 2020UT.
Geomagnetic: Active to Severe Storm Levels
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 145% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
28 Jul
Solar: moderate, with an M2 at 0006UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 30% first half UT day,
Enhanced by 45% later half the UT day.
Spoaraid E blanketing, and absorption
observed.
29 Jul
Solar: moderate, with an M2/-- at 0006UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
COMMENT: Coronal mass ejection induced geomagnetic storm activity
25 and on 27 July. Ionospheric MUFs were depressed on 26 July.
Ionospheric depression response to 26 July geomagnetic activity
was confined to southern Aus/NZ region.
2. FORECAST (30 JULY - 05 AUGUST)
Solar: low most of week. Moderate flare activity may occur
toward end of week due to possibility of returning solar
regions and from on-disk region 654 if development
continues.
Geomagnetic: A coronal mass ejection is expected to induce
active to minor storm periods late 30/31 July. Otherwise recurrrence
suggests that quiet conditions can be expected all week.
Frequencies: mildy depressed after local dawn on 30-31Jul.
SWFs probable late in week.
PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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