[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 July 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 JULY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (16 JULY - 22 JULY)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    147   149   155   170   175   172   173
AFr       8    13     6    11     8     5 ( 10)
Aaus      5     9     5     7     5     3 ( 16)
T        64    75    71    69    70    66    64

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an X1.3 at 0206UT, an X1.1/1F at 1041UT, an X3.6/3B at
1355UT, and an M1/SF at 1628UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% with periods of significant
      degradations.


17 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an X1.0/1F at 0757UT, an M2/1N at 1651UT, an M2/1F at
2131UT, and an M1 at 2308UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active, isolated minor storm conditions 
              observed. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% with periods of strong degradations.


18 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1F at 0035UT, an M1/SF at 0257UT, and an
M1/1F at 1713UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 50% with periods of significant 
      degradations.


19 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods observed. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 60% with periods of significant
      degradations.


20 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an M8.6/3B at 1232UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% with periods of strong degradations.


21 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


22 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an   M9.1 at 0032UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (17nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1037UT on 22
Jul.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 75% over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (23 JULY - 29 JULY)
Solar: Moderate conditions expected for 23July-26July as Region 652
has the potential for further M-Class activity, tending toward Low to
Moderate conditions for 27July-29July with region 652 beginning to 
show slight signs of decay.

Geomagnetic:  Active conditions expected for 23July-24July, after which
mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions for the remainder of the week.

Frequencies:  Mildy depressed after local dawn on 23Jul-24Jul,  otherwise MUFs near
normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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