[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (25 January 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 25 JANUARY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (18 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY)
Date     18    19    20    21    22    23    24
10cm    211   214   222   225   229   227   231
AFr       5    11     6     7     5     4 (  4)
Aaus      7    18    12    17     5    10 (  6)
T       171   145   127   142   157   163   164

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

18 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


19 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1005UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1432UT on 19
Jan.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


21 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0900UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

23 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

24 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (25 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY)
Solar: Moderate. 

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Unsettled intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
              SWFs possible.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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