[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (18 January 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 18 JANUARY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (11 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY)
Date     11    12    13    14    15    16    17
10cm    229   233   241   229   218   216   212
AFr      12    12    10     7     4     3 (  7)
Aaus     26    16    16    10     9     7 ( 11)
T       127   147   123   153   166   186   168

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

11 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0741UT on 11
Jan.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% deporessed to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

12 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0322UT, an M1/1N at 1519UT, an M3 at
1843UT, and an M1/SF at 1929UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

13 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1N at 0310UT, and an M2/SF at 1946UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Some absorption observed early in UTday,
      Near predicted monthly values over rest of UT day.

14 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0136UT, an M1/2N at 0156UT, an M4 at
0627UT, and an M1/SF at 2246UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

15 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Increased absorption observed.

16 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1013UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 75% during local night.
     Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

17 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (18 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY)
Solar: Low to Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Unsettled intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. SWFs probable early in week.


PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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