[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 August 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 AUGUST 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (16 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    214   227   241   237   228   220   220
AFr       8     8    15    20    16    19 ( 12)
Aaus     14     9    16    20    12    20 ( 10)
T       141   152   148   153   159   153   150

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Aug 
Solar:        high, with an M2/SF at 0611UT, an M5.2/2N at 1232UT,
		    an M1 at 2212UT, and an M1/SF at 2333UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed late in UT day.


17 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0108UT, and an M3/SF at 2051UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


18 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2 at 1005UT, an M1/SF at 1439UT,
			and an M2/1B at 2125UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (19nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at
1846UT on 18 Aug.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


19 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 1034UT, and an M3/1B at 2102UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (20nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1145UT
on 19 Aug.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


20 Aug 
Solar:        high, with an M5.0/1N at 0140UT, an M1/1N at 0257UT,
              an M3/1B at 0826UT, and an M1/1F at 2114UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


21 Aug 
Solar:        high, with an M1/SF at 0141UT, and an X1.0/1B at 0534UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Normal to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Normal to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted monthly
      values.


22 Aug 
Solar:        high, with an  M5/2B at 0157UT , and an  M1/1N at 1802UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


 
2. FORECAST (23 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with Active to Minor storm intervals
possible 24-25 August.

Frequencies: Possible slightly depressed conditions for 25-26 August,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060