[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 August 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 AUGUST 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (09 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm    140   148   172   184   192   208   210
AFr       9    13    13     9     9    10 ( 15)
Aaus     12    10    13    12     7    11 ( 19)
T       114   130   139   127   131   132   137

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

10 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 90% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

13 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 1904UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

14 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 0212UT, and an M1/1F at 1815UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 95% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

15 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/SF at 0605UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.

 
2. FORECAST (16 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST)
Solar: Moderate to High Fadeouts expected. Large region on
disk, but yet to produce major activity. Also possible
return of previously flaring regions 39 and 44 around 17-18 Aug.

Geomagnetic:  Active periods expected 16 Aug (CME). Otherwise 
Quiet to Unsettled. Chance for further CME induced disturbances this 
week. Also, weak recurrent signature 23-24 Aug.

Frequencies:  MUFs near normal. Possible degradation 16-17 Aug.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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