[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (21 September 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 21 SEPTEMBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (14 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER)
Date     14    15    16    17    18    19    20
10cm    237   219   207   199   204   199   227
AFr       8    10     7     6     7     8 (  8)
Aaus     10    13     4     4     9     6 (  4)
T       147   156   144   151   152   157   164

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

14 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3 at 2150UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


15 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1N at 1128UT, and an M1/1F at 1559UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


16 Sep 
Solar:        high, with an M5.6/2N at 0353UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


17 Sep 
Solar:        high, with an M1/2N at 0825UT, an M8.1/1N at 1550UT,
              an M1/1N at 2108UT, and an M1/2N at 2146UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


18 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0008UT, an M1/1F at 1538UT,
              an M1 at 1552UT, and an M1/SF at 1707UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 50% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


19 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


20 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1.6 at 1818UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.


 
2. FORECAST (21 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to unsettled with active intervals for
              most of forecast period and possible minor storm
              periods 21 Sept.

Frequencies:  Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced. Possible
              slight depressions on 21 Sept. 
              SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060