[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (12 October 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 12 OCTOBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (05 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER)
Date     05    06    07    08    09    10    11
10cm    177   180   173   171   176   179   175
AFr      10     6     1    11    16     6 ( 20)
Aaus      8     6     2    13    11     7 ( 16)
T       149   153   164   171   161   148   145

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

05 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

06 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2 at 0525UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35% during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.

07 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.

08 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

09 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/2F at 1113UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active, sudden impulse observed 1701UT, 
              from M1/CME on 09 Oct.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
 
2. FORECAST (12 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Solar: Low to Moderate. Solar activity may increase from
       16 October due to possible return of previously active
       solar regions.

Geomagnetic:  Active 12 Oct, unsettled to active 13 Oct, then
              mostly quiet to unsettled.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 12-13Oct,  
              otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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