[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (05 October 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 05 OCTOBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (28 SEPTEMBER - 04 OCTOBER)
Date     28    29    30    01    02    03    04
10cm    266   240   236   217   201   192   187
AFr      10    19    15    25    24    26 ( 15)
Aaus     10    25    19    32    30    42 ( 18)
T       168   160   133   125   138   106   101

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

28 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3/2N at 0830UT, an M2/1N at 1014UT, 
	      an M1/1F at 1926UT, and an M1/1F at 2125UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 60% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


29 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 1106UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


30 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1141UT, and an M1 at 2136UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


01 Oct 
Solar:        high, with an M9.1 at 0515UT, and an M1/SF at 2345UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


02 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1021UT, and an M1/SF at 1127UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed first half of day.
      Enhaced by 20% during second half of day.


03 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


04 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (05 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 10-Oct,  otherwise
              MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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