[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (18 May 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 18 MAY 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (11 MAY - 17 MAY)
Date     11    12    13    14    15    16    17
10cm    137   138   139   138   142   138   147
AFr       5    20    17    10    10     7 ( 10)
Aaus      5    24    19     8    11     6 (  4)
T       113   126    98   101    91    98    86

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

11 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed local night.

12 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3/1B at 2335UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3/SN at 0304UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

14 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

15 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1N at 0300UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1042UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/1F at 1652UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (18 MAY - 24 MAY)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with Storm level
intervals possible.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% on 24-May,  otherwise MUFs near
normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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